Short Term Rental Market Summary: Record Summer Season Ends Successfully
September 27, 2022 · Air Concierge Inc
U.S. Short-Term Rental Performance Metrics for August 2022
The short-term rental sector closed out a record summer with strong performance across key metrics:
• Offered listings reached 1.38 million, up 23.3% year over year, +7.0% vs. 2019
• Overall demand increased 19.8% YOY, and is up 16.4% vs. the pre-pandemic 2019 baseline
• Occupancy decreased 4.3% YOY to 63.8%; Tenancy is up +7.1% vs. 2019
• Average daily rates (ADRs) increased 2.8% YOY to $288, and are up 22.8% vs. 2019
• Total Revenue was 23.1% higher YOY in August, and is up 42.9% vs. 2019
• Nights booked for future travel were up 16.9% YOY to 17.7 million
Summer Performance Remained Durable
During August, the short-term rental sector performance continued to be durable, continuing the well-established trend of both the summer and 2022 as a whole. Over 20.7 million nights were stayed throughout short-term rental properties, down from July's peak of 23 million as colleges reopened and the household holiday segment was somewhat less active in the U.S. market.
Demand for the month was up 19.8% year-over-year, expanding from the +17.8% year-over-year figure seen in July. In 2021, concerns about the Delta variant dampened travel demand during the summer, but overall travel spending in the United States this summer is estimated to hit new records, notably surpassing 2019's pre-pandemic levels.
While average daily rates continue to climb, both year-over-year and versus 2019 levels, a sharp rise in supply of available listings (up 23.3% YoY in August) remains a common theme in 2022. During August, supply growth outpaced demand growth, resulting in the sixth month in a row of decreasing occupancy rates with a -4.3% change throughout August.
Economic Uncertainty Continues
As a result of the supply increases, hosts have encountered an uphill battle in the effort to cover costs with high inflation, currently tracking above 8% in the U.S. according to the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). ADRs were up a scant 2.8% year over year in August, following a 3.8% ADR increase in July. The addition of more listings nationwide, rising labor costs, and relentless inflation will continue to put pressure on revenue per available listing (RevPAR), which hit record levels in 2021.
Economists, and the Federal Reserve (which controls interest rates), cannot seem to agree on the overall direction and health of the U.S. economy, as the outlook continues to be unclear as long as inflation tracks well above historical standards. The labor and employment figures continue to be solid, with 315,000 jobs added during the month and discretionary consumer spending growing, yet fears of a recession will likely continue through year-end. The most significant X-factor in financial estimates is whether COVID case counts can remain on a descending trend through the holiday and winter season periods.
Newly-approved vaccinations derived from more current COVID variants can do a lot to relieve anxieties of travel during these vital future months for the STR sector.
Gas prices have fallen by another 35 cents to $3.70 on average according to AAA, and should be a gradual boost to travel considerations heading into the 4th quarter.
Supply Growth Impacting Occupancy in Many U.S. Markets
The supply of available listings reached 1.38 million in August — 23.3% higher than the year prior, yet just 7.3% higher than 2019's 1.28 million listings. The gradual relaxation of travel restrictions that 2022 has brought has created several potential hosts entering the market, looking to capitalize on the solid ADR and occupancy figures that 2021 delivered to existing hosts. New listings growth started a sharp acceleration in March of this year, with STR listings growth of over 70,000 each month for five successive months. A total of 76,000 new listings hit the STR market during the month of August.
U.S. Short-Term Rental Supply Hits Record Levels in 2022
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Of the 50 largest United States short-term rental markets, the highest rate of growth has taken place primarily in large cities in Texas and the Southwest. Houston had the highest growth in listings, going from 10,950 listings in August 2021 to 16,270 listings in 2022, a 48.6% rise in just one year. The following fastest growth markets included Phoenix (+45.8%), San Antonio (+44.7%), Las Vegas (+41.4%), and Dallas (+39.0%). These larger cities may be starting to benefit from the return of business travel for conventions and meetings.
YOY modification in offered listings
With the substantial gains in listings, numerous markets saw major declines in average occupancy for the month, with Las Vegas seeing the largest decrease of 13% year over year. Only Lakeland/Winter Haven, Florida, had a year-over-year decrease in listings, which helped it attain a 10.2% increase in occupancy over the previous year. Of the 50 largest markets, only 20 achieved occupancy gains in the month.
Overall U.S. occupancy was at 63.8% throughout August — falling below both 2020 and 2021 levels. Looking back to 2021's record level (66.7% last August), huge suppressed demand met a hotel sector that was slow to fully resume, and STR listings growth that was still in a pandemic-driven lull.
All area types saw a year-over-year decrease in occupancy, ranging from a light 1.5% decrease in coastal destinations to a 7.7% decline in midsize cities. Rural markets have been a pocket of strength throughout the summer, as travelers have shared a desire to get closer to nature and take more trips to destinations near mountains, rivers, and national forests.
